Obama targetting Arizona
CNN indicates that Barack Obama is going to air ads in John McCain’s home state of Arizona. They say that Arizona would be a key swing state if not for the fact that McCain is from there; the Republican only leads 49–45 with 6 percent undecided. McCain’s residency and his long representation of the state in the Congress is probably worth at least 4 points; the state would probably be looking bluish, like neighboring New Mexico and Colorado if the GOP had nominated someone else.
Intrade speculators think it is 4.35 times more likely that McCain will win Arizona than that Obama will do so. However, they may not have had time to factor in Obama’s latest decision into the pricing. In any event, Obama’s only goal probably isn’t to win Arizona’s 10 electoral votes, though I’m sure he wouldn’t mind them. He’ll probably consider the expenditure worth it if it simply creates the impression that McCain is embattled and struggling even to win his home turf. Hmm. It seems to be working.
Readers may recall that Democrat Al Gore lost his home state of Tennessee in 2000; had he won it, he’d have been president.